Hamilton, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

099
FXUS61 KILN 031431
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
931 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today is replaced by a strengthening low pressure
Wednesday, resulting in breezy conditions, chances for rain and
snow, and very cold conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. The
cold air will linger into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures
will nudge back closer to normal by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The center of a surface high remains south and west of the area
today. Cold conditions persist with forecast highs near
freezing. Winds generally remain out of the west from 10-15 mph.
Some low level moisture may lead to a few light isolated snow
showers this morning along with cloud cover before mixing dries
out the lower levels later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Throughout the overnight, winds begin to increase in response to
the tightening pressure gradient caused by an approaching low
pressure system. Winds are strongest in eastern Indiana and
west-central Ohio, with wind gusts climbing upwards of 20 to 25mph.
Winds strengthen area wide through the mid-morning and early
afternoon before leveling off in the 30 to 35mph range. Can`t
rule out a few wind gusts to 40 mph.

Precipitation trends have continued to trend drier for much of
the day on Wednesday with perhaps a few scattered sprinkles or
ice pellets during the afternoon. During the evening, pre-
frontal convergence supports the development of a southwest to
northeast aligned band of mostly rain. Can`t rule out some wet
snowflakes north of I-70 with the cold air advection only just
beginning during the early evening hours. Chances for snow
increase into the long term period along with better chances for
higher wind gusts.

Due to the strong southwesterly flow, temperatures do warm up
throughout the late morning and early afternoon, but it is worth
mentioning that the Wednesday morning wind chill will be quite
unpleasant given the stronger winds. Temperatures are rising
out of the upper 20s, but the wind chill is still expected to be
in the teens up to the noon hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system will shift east across the
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid level short
wave rotates around it and across the Ohio Valley. This will
help push a cold front southeast across our area Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Good CAA will develop with temperatures
dropping off quickly behind the front Wednesday night. Overnight
lows will range from the mid teens in the west to the lower 20s
in the east.

Strong southwest flow ahead of the front will lead to
increasing moisture and widespread pcpn development Wednesday
evening. Pcpn will likely start off as mainly rain but then
change over to snow quickly as the good CAA develops on the back
side of the front. Pcpn will taper off from the west overnight
as drier air moves in, but we will still likely have a few hour
period of snow before it ends. Forecast soundings are showing
increasing low level lapse rates and some weak low level cape of
generally less 100 J/KG developing across our area through the
night. The snow squall parameter is picking up on this and
lightning up across the region during the overnight period, so
will likely have the potential for some decent snow shower
activity and at least some localized accumulations. Will
generally go with snow amounts of less than an inch. It will
also be windy with gusts to around 40 mph likely.

Windy conditions will continue into the day on Thursday but we
should begin to see some decrease in winds from the southwest
through the day as the pressure gradient begins to slacken up
somewhat. It will be unseasonably cold on Thursday with daytime
highs only in the mid 20s and wind chill values down around zero
across much of the area Thursday morning.

Surface high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley on
Friday and push off to our east through the day on Saturday.
This will allow for developing southwest flow and moderating
temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures by Sunday will be
back to near normal with daytime highs in the 40s. A mid level
short wave moving through the Ohio Valley may eventually lead to
a chance of rain early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pockets of MVFR CIGs persist across the sites this morning, with
gradual improvement anticipated after 14 or 15Z. Improvement
will be delayed closer to 18Z for Columbus sites. Otherwise,
scattered flurries or an occasional snow shower linger this
morning before ending.

Winds remain around 5-10 kts today and tonight.

LLWS has been added for DAY, CVG, and LUK, but only for a couple
of hours (11-14Z) Wednesday. LLWS potential decreases through
mid morning, and shouldn`t be an issue for the remainder of the
sites.

Between 00-12Z Wednesday, winds become more southerly,
increasing to around 10 knots. Mentions of wind gusts
approaching 20 knots have been added with stronger gusts between
25 and 30 knots expected Wednesday afternoon through. Gusts of
35 to 40 knots are possible beginning Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible through Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis